Germany 20-Year Bund Auction

最新数据

最新一期于 2026-10-14 公布，数值为 3.80%。 高于上次的 3.78%。

最近 7 次公布中介于 3.36% 至 3.88%，平均 3.58%。

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为何重要

Government yields are the base of every other interest rate. Short maturities follow the European Central Bank (with the Bundesbank)'s policy rate closely; long ones reflect expected growth, inflation and the risk of holding long debt. Higher yields relative to other countries attract capital and support the euro; the gap between long and short yields (the yield curve) is a classic recession signal when it turns negative.

计算方法

The yield is the interest rate that makes the present value of the bond's coupons and repayment equal to its price; on a calendar it often reports the average yield at a government auction.

Price = Σ coupon ÷ (1 + y)ᵗ + face ÷ (1 + y)ᵀ
Inflation-linked (TIPS) yield ≈ nominal yield − expected inflation

变化意味着什么

• Yields rise when prices of bonds fall: strong data and hawkish central banks push yields up.
• An inverted curve (2-year above 10-year) has preceded most US recessions, with a lag of a year or more.
• Inflation-linked yields show the real (after-inflation) return.

简史

Government bond markets go back to the Dutch and English debt of the 17th century; the US Treasury yield curve has been watched as a recession signal since research by Campbell Harvey in the 1980s.

问题