Wages and labour costs · United States
United States Average Hourly Earnings YoY
The United States Average Hourly Earnings YoY measures how fast pay, or the total cost of employing people, is rising in the United States.
- Важность
- Medium
- Опубликовано
- Monthly
- Следующая публикация
- Валюта
- USD · US dollar
- Центральный банк
- The Federal Reserve
Последние данные
Последняя публикация, за OCT, вышла 2026-11-06; значение: 3.1%. Это выше консенсус-прогноза 2.9%. Это ниже, чем 3.2% в прошлый раз (пересмотрено).
A higher figure than expected makes the Federal Reserve more likely to keep rates high or raise them: it tends to support the US dollar and push bond yields up, and is often a weight on stocks.
За последние 12 публикаций значение колебалось от 3.0% до 3.8%, в среднем 3.4%.
| Опубликовано | Для | Факт | Консенсус | Предыдущее |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2026 | OCT | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% ® |
| 2 Oct 2026 | SEP | 3% | 3.2% | 3.1% |
| 4 Sep 2026 | AUG | 3.1% | 3% | 3.2% |
| 7 Aug 2026 | JUL | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% ® |
| 2 Jul 2026 | JUN | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% |
| 5 Jun 2026 | MAY | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% |
| 8 May 2026 | APR | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.4% ® |
| 3 Apr 2026 | MAR | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% |
| 6 Mar 2026 | FEB | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.7% |
| 11 Feb 2026 | JAN | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.7% ® |
| 9 Jan 2026 | DEC | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% ® |
| 16 Dec 2025 | OCT | 3.7% | – | 3.7% ® |
Почему это важно
Wages are the largest cost for service businesses, so wage growth well above productivity growth turns into lasting inflation. Central banks watch it to judge whether inflation will return to target; strong wage growth tends to keep the Federal Reserve hawkish.
Как считается
Pay data come from employer surveys, tax records or collective agreements; the release usually shows the change from a year earlier. Labour cost indexes include employers' social contributions and benefits.
Wage growth (yoy) = average pay ÷ average pay a year ago − 1
Real wage growth ≈ wage growth − inflationЧто означают изменения
- Wage growth of about 3–3.5% is roughly consistent with 2% inflation when productivity grows about 1%.
- Compositional effects (low-paid workers losing jobs) can lift the average misleadingly.
Выше ожиданий: A higher figure than expected makes the Federal Reserve more likely to keep rates high or raise them: it tends to support the US dollar and push bond yields up, and is often a weight on stocks.
Ниже ожиданий: A lower figure than expected gives the Federal Reserve room to cut or hold rates lower: the US dollar tends to soften and bond yields to fall.
Краткая история
The link between wages and inflation was described by A. W. Phillips in 1958 (the Phillips curve); it has weakened and strengthened over the decades but remains central to central-bank thinking.
Вопросы
What is the United States Average Hourly Earnings YoY?
The United States Average Hourly Earnings YoY measures how fast pay, or the total cost of employing people, is rising in the United States.
What was the latest United States Average Hourly Earnings YoY?
3.1% for OCT, published on 6 November 2026 (consensus 2.9%, previous 3.2%).
When is the next United States Average Hourly Earnings YoY?
On Friday 4 December 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Только образовательный материал, не инвестиционная рекомендация. Цифры — опубликованные результаты в том виде, в каком их записал наш календарь; описанные реакции рынка типичны, но не гарантированы.