Japan GDP Growth Annualized Prel

Последние данные

Последняя публикация, за Q2, вышла 2026-08-16; значение: 1.1%. Это ниже консенсус-прогноза 2%. Это ниже, чем 1.9% в прошлый раз (пересмотрено).

A weaker figure than expected points to slowing activity: the Japanese yen tends to soften and markets price in lower rates.

За последние 7 публикаций значение колебалось от -1.8% до 2.8%, в среднем 0.7%.

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Почему это важно

GDP is the broadest measure of economic health. Two quarters of contraction are the common rule of thumb for a recession. Stronger growth supports corporate earnings, jobs and the Japanese yen, and can push the Bank of Japan towards higher rates; a contraction raises the odds of cuts.

Как считается

the Statistics Bureau and the Cabinet Office adds up spending in the economy: consumption + investment + government spending + exports − imports, measured at constant prices (real GDP) and adjusted for seasonal patterns. The first (advance or flash) estimate is revised as more data arrive. The US annualises the quarterly change.

GDP = C + I + G + (X − M)
Growth (qoq) = real GDP ÷ real GDP last quarter − 1
Annualised = (1 + qoq)⁴ − 1

Что означают изменения

• Compare with the consensus and with the previous quarter; the first estimate gets the biggest reaction.
• Look at the mix: growth from consumption and investment is healthier than growth from inventories.
• An annualised US figure of 2% is close to its long-run trend; 0.5% quarter on quarter is similar in European terms.

Краткая история

Simon Kuznets built the first national income accounts for the US Congress in 1934. GDP replaced GNP as the US headline measure in 1991; international standards are set in the UN System of National Accounts.

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