Bank lending and credit · China
China Outstanding Loan Growth YoY
The China Outstanding Loan Growth YoY measures how much new credit banks extend, or how fast their loans or deposits grow, in China.
- Важность
- Medium
- Опубликовано
- Monthly
- Следующая публикация
- Валюта
- CNH · Chinese yuan (renminbi)
- Центральный банк
- The People's Bank of China
Последние данные
Последняя публикация, за SEP, вышла 2026-10-14; значение: 4.8%. Это соответствует консенсус-прогнозу 4.8%. Это ниже, чем 4.9% в прошлый раз.
Результат в рамках консенсуса обычно вызывает слабую реакцию: он уже заложен в цену.
За последние 12 публикаций значение колебалось от 4.8% до 6.5%, в среднем 5.7%. Показатель снижался три публикации подряд.
| Опубликовано | Для | Факт | Консенсус | Предыдущее |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | SEP | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% |
| 14 Sep 2026 | AUG | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% |
| 14 Aug 2026 | JUL | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% ® |
| 15 Jul 2026 | JUN | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% |
| 12 Jun 2026 | MAY | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% |
| 14 May 2026 | APR | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% ® |
| 13 Apr 2026 | MAR | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6% |
| 13 Mar 2026 | FEB | 6.0% | 6% | 6.1% |
| 13 Feb 2026 | JAN | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% |
| 15 Jan 2026 | DEC | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% |
| 12 Dec 2025 | NOV | 6.4% | – | 6.5% |
| 13 Nov 2025 | OCT | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
Почему это важно
Credit is the fuel of spending and investment. Strong lending growth means households and companies are confident and that monetary policy is passing through; a credit slowdown often precedes a slowdown in activity. In China, new loans and total social financing are among the most watched signs of stimulus.
Как считается
Banks report the outstanding stock of loans to the central bank; the release shows the change over the month or the growth from a year earlier.
Что означают изменения
- Rising credit growth supports the growth outlook and the Chinese yuan (renminbi).
- A sudden drop in lending can signal tighter bank standards or weak demand.
- Compare with interest rates: credit should slow after hikes; if it does not, more tightening may follow.
Выше ожиданий: A stronger figure than expected points to a healthier economy: it usually supports the Chinese yuan (renminbi) and local stocks, and can push bond yields up.
Ниже ожиданий: A weaker figure than expected points to slowing activity: the Chinese yuan (renminbi) tends to soften and markets price in lower rates.
Краткая история
Credit cycles were described by economists such as Hyman Minsky; after the 2008 financial crisis regulators began to track credit growth closely as an early warning of booms and busts.
Вопросы
What is the China Outstanding Loan Growth YoY?
The China Outstanding Loan Growth YoY measures how much new credit banks extend, or how fast their loans or deposits grow, in China.
What was the latest China Outstanding Loan Growth YoY?
4.8% for SEP, published on 14 October 2026 (consensus 4.8%, previous 4.9%).
When is the next China Outstanding Loan Growth YoY?
On Friday 13 November 2026.
Только образовательный материал, не инвестиционная рекомендация. Цифры — опубликованные результаты в том виде, в каком их записал наш календарь; описанные реакции рынка типичны, но не гарантированы.