United States GDP Price Index QoQ

Derniers chiffres

La dernière publication, pour Q3, est parue le 2025-12-23 et s’est établie à 3.7%. C’est au-dessus du consensus de 2.7%. C’est plus que 2.1% la fois précédente.

A higher figure than expected makes the Federal Reserve more likely to keep rates high or raise them: it tends to support the US dollar and push bond yields up, and is often a weight on stocks.

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Pourquoi c’est important

In the United States the Federal Reserve's 2% target is defined on the PCE price index, and the core measure (without food and energy) is the one policymakers quote most. Because CPI comes out first, markets usually know roughly what PCE will show; surprises come from the parts measured differently, such as health care.

Mode de calcul

PCE prices are built from the same price data as CPI and producer prices, but weighted by what households actually spend (including what is paid on their behalf, like employer health insurance), and the weights change every period. The GDP deflator divides nominal GDP by real GDP.

Deflator = nominal GDP ÷ real GDP × 100
PCE inflation = PCE index ÷ PCE index a year ago − 1

Ce que signifient les variations

• Core PCE above 2% and rising keeps the Fed cautious about cutting rates.
• The monthly change annualised (× 12) shows the latest pace; three-month averages smooth the noise.

Un bref historique

The Fed switched its preferred inflation measure from CPI to PCE in 2000 and wrote the 2% PCE target into its strategy in 2012.

Questions