Business confidence · Japan
Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook
The Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook asks companies in Japan how they judge current business conditions and what they expect for the coming months.
- Importance
- Medium
- Publié
- Quarterly
- Prochaine publication
- Devise
- JPY · Japanese yen
- Banque centrale
- The Bank of Japan
Derniers chiffres
La dernière publication, pour Q3, est parue le 2026-09-30 et s’est établie à 21. C’est en dessous du consensus de 22. C’est plus que 17 la fois précédente.
A weaker figure than expected points to slowing activity: the Japanese yen tends to soften and markets price in lower rates.
Sur les 7 dernières publications, la valeur est allée de 12 à 21, avec une moyenne de 15. Elle a augmenté trois publications d’affilée.
| Publié | Pour | Réel | Consensus | Précédent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep 2026 | Q3 | 21 | 22 | 17 |
| 30 Jun 2026 | Q2 | 17 | 13 | 14 |
| 31 Mar 2026 | Q1 | 14 | 13 | 15 |
| 14 Dec 2025 | Q4 | 15 | 13 | 12 |
| 30 Sep 2025 | Q3 | 12 | 13 | 12 |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Q2 | 12 | 9 | 12 |
| 31 Mar 2025 | Q1 | 12 | 9 | 13 |
Pourquoi c’est important
Confidence leads hiring and investment decisions, so these surveys often turn before the hard data. Germany's Ifo and ZEW, and Japan's Tankan, are among the most market-moving releases for the euro and the yen.
Mode de calcul
Survey answers (better/same/worse) are turned into a balance (positive minus negative answers) or an index around a long-run average of 100; the release separates current conditions from expectations.
Ce que signifient les variations
- The expectations component turns first; watch its direction over several months.
- A gap between strong current conditions and weak expectations often marks a peak.
Supérieur aux attentes : A stronger figure than expected points to a healthier economy: it usually supports the Japanese yen and local stocks, and can push bond yields up.
Inférieur aux attentes : A weaker figure than expected points to slowing activity: the Japanese yen tends to soften and markets price in lower rates.
Un bref historique
Business tendency surveys began in Germany (Ifo) and other European countries after the Second World War; the Bank of Japan's Tankan has been run for decades, and the ZEW financial-expert survey since 1991.
Questions
What is the Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook?
The Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook asks companies in Japan how they judge current business conditions and what they expect for the coming months.
What was the latest Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook?
21 for Q3, published on 30 September 2026 (consensus 22, previous 17).
When is the next Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook?
On Sunday 13 December 2026 at 23:50 UTC.
Contenu éducatif uniquement, pas un conseil en investissement. Les chiffres sont les résultats publiés tels qu’enregistrés par notre calendrier ; les réactions de marché décrites sont typiques, non garanties.