Underlying inflation measures · Canada
Canada CPI Trimmed-Mean YoY
The Canada CPI Trimmed-Mean YoY is an alternative measure of underlying inflation in Canada, built to strip out one-off price jumps without simply dropping whole categories.
- Importance
- Medium
- Publié
- Monthly
- Prochaine publication
- Devise
- CAD · Canadian dollar
- Banque centrale
- The Bank of Canada
Derniers chiffres
La dernière publication, pour SEP, est parue le 2026-10-19 et s’est établie à 1.8%. C’est en dessous du consensus de 1.9%. C’est moins que 1.9% la fois précédente.
A lower figure than expected gives the Bank of Canada room to cut or hold rates lower: the Canadian dollar tends to soften and bond yields to fall.
Sur les 12 dernières publications, la valeur est allée de 1.8% à 3.0%, avec une moyenne de 2.2%.
| Publié | Pour | Réel | Consensus | Précédent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct 2026 | SEP | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% |
| 14 Sep 2026 | AUG | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% |
| 17 Aug 2026 | JUL | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% ® |
| 20 Jul 2026 | JUN | 1.8% | 2% | 2% |
| 22 Jun 2026 | MAY | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| 19 May 2026 | APR | 2% | 2.1% | 2.2% |
| 20 Apr 2026 | MAR | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| 16 Mar 2026 | FEB | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| 17 Feb 2026 | JAN | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% |
| 19 Jan 2026 | DEC | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.9% ® |
| 15 Dec 2025 | NOV | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3% |
| 17 Nov 2025 | OCT | 3% | 3% | 3.1% |
Pourquoi c’est important
the Bank of Canada watches these measures to judge whether inflation is broad-based. When they agree with the headline, the trend is real; when they diverge, a few items are distorting the picture.
Mode de calcul
A trimmed mean removes the items with the largest and smallest price changes (for example the top and bottom 15% by weight) and averages the rest; a weighted median takes the price change in the middle of the distribution. Other variants hold mortgage interest costs fixed or use common components.
Ce que signifient les variations
- A trimmed mean or median near the target is the clearest sign that inflation is under control.
- When the headline jumps but these do not, the move is likely temporary.
Supérieur aux attentes : A higher figure than expected makes the Bank of Canada more likely to keep rates high or raise them: it tends to support the Canadian dollar and push bond yields up, and is often a weight on stocks.
Inférieur aux attentes : A lower figure than expected gives the Bank of Canada room to cut or hold rates lower: the Canadian dollar tends to soften and bond yields to fall.
Un bref historique
Trimmed means were developed in the 1990s (Bryan and Cecchetti at the Cleveland Fed); the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada give them a central place in their policy.
Questions
What is the Canada CPI Trimmed-Mean YoY?
The Canada CPI Trimmed-Mean YoY is an alternative measure of underlying inflation in Canada, built to strip out one-off price jumps without simply dropping whole categories.
What was the latest Canada CPI Trimmed-Mean YoY?
1.8% for SEP, published on 19 October 2026 (consensus 1.9%, previous 1.9%).
When is the next Canada CPI Trimmed-Mean YoY?
On Monday 16 November 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Contenu éducatif uniquement, pas un conseil en investissement. Les chiffres sont les résultats publiés tels qu’enregistrés par notre calendrier ; les réactions de marché décrites sont typiques, non garanties.