Underlying inflation measures · Canada
Canada CPI Median YoY
The Canada CPI Median YoY is an alternative measure of underlying inflation in Canada, built to strip out one-off price jumps without simply dropping whole categories.
- Importance
- Medium
- Publié
- Monthly
- Prochaine publication
- Devise
- CAD · Canadian dollar
- Banque centrale
- The Bank of Canada
Derniers chiffres
La dernière publication, pour SEP, est parue le 2026-10-19 et s’est établie à 1.9%. C’est conforme au consensus de 1.9%. C’est moins que 2% la fois précédente.
Un résultat conforme au consensus provoque généralement peu de réaction : il était déjà intégré dans les prix.
Sur les 12 dernières publications, la valeur est allée de 1.9% à 2.9%, avec une moyenne de 2.3%.
| Publié | Pour | Réel | Consensus | Précédent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct 2026 | SEP | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2% |
| 14 Sep 2026 | AUG | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| 17 Aug 2026 | JUL | 2% | 1.9% | 1.9% |
| 20 Jul 2026 | JUN | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% |
| 22 Jun 2026 | MAY | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% |
| 19 May 2026 | APR | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.3% |
| 20 Apr 2026 | MAR | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| 16 Mar 2026 | FEB | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% |
| 17 Feb 2026 | JAN | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% ® |
| 19 Jan 2026 | DEC | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% |
| 15 Dec 2025 | NOV | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3% ® |
| 17 Nov 2025 | OCT | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% ® |
Pourquoi c’est important
the Bank of Canada watches these measures to judge whether inflation is broad-based. When they agree with the headline, the trend is real; when they diverge, a few items are distorting the picture.
Mode de calcul
A trimmed mean removes the items with the largest and smallest price changes (for example the top and bottom 15% by weight) and averages the rest; a weighted median takes the price change in the middle of the distribution. Other variants hold mortgage interest costs fixed or use common components.
Ce que signifient les variations
- A trimmed mean or median near the target is the clearest sign that inflation is under control.
- When the headline jumps but these do not, the move is likely temporary.
Supérieur aux attentes : A higher figure than expected makes the Bank of Canada more likely to keep rates high or raise them: it tends to support the Canadian dollar and push bond yields up, and is often a weight on stocks.
Inférieur aux attentes : A lower figure than expected gives the Bank of Canada room to cut or hold rates lower: the Canadian dollar tends to soften and bond yields to fall.
Un bref historique
Trimmed means were developed in the 1990s (Bryan and Cecchetti at the Cleveland Fed); the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada give them a central place in their policy.
Questions
What is the Canada CPI Median YoY?
The Canada CPI Median YoY is an alternative measure of underlying inflation in Canada, built to strip out one-off price jumps without simply dropping whole categories.
What was the latest Canada CPI Median YoY?
1.9% for SEP, published on 19 October 2026 (consensus 1.9%, previous 2%).
When is the next Canada CPI Median YoY?
On Monday 16 November 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Contenu éducatif uniquement, pas un conseil en investissement. Les chiffres sont les résultats publiés tels qu’enregistrés par notre calendrier ; les réactions de marché décrites sont typiques, non garanties.