Inflation expectations · United States
United States Consumer Inflation Expectations
The United States Consumer Inflation Expectations measures the inflation that households, businesses or professional forecasters in the United States expect over the coming months or years.
- Importancia
- Medium
- Publicado
- Monthly
- Próxima publicación
- Divisa
- USD · US dollar
- Banco central
- The Federal Reserve
Últimas cifras
El último dato, de SEP, se publicó el 2026-10-07 y fue 3.9%. Es más que 3.6% la vez anterior.
En las últimas 12 publicaciones osciló entre 3.0% y 3.9%, con una media de 3.4%.
| Publicado | Para | Real | Consenso | Anterior |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Oct 2026 | SEP | 3.9% | – | 3.6% |
| 8 Sep 2026 | AUG | 3.6% | – | 3.6% |
| 7 Aug 2026 | JUL | 3.6% | – | 3.7% |
| 7 Jul 2026 | JUN | 3.7% | – | 3.5% |
| 8 Jun 2026 | MAY | 3.5% | – | 3.6% |
| 7 May 2026 | APR | 3.6% | – | 3.4% |
| 7 Apr 2026 | MAR | 3.4% | – | 3% |
| 9 Mar 2026 | FEB | 3% | – | 3.1% |
| 9 Feb 2026 | JAN | 3.1% | – | 3.4% |
| 8 Jan 2026 | DEC | 3.4% | – | 3.2% |
| 8 Dec 2025 | NOV | 3.2% | – | 3.2% |
| 7 Nov 2025 | OCT | 3.2% | – | 3.4% |
Por qué importa
Expectations feed into wage demands and price setting, so inflation can become self-fulfilling. Central banks watch them closely: well-anchored expectations near the target let the Federal Reserve look through temporary price jumps.
Cómo se calcula
Survey respondents give their own estimate of future price growth; the release reports the median or average. Market-based versions use the gap between ordinary and inflation-linked bond yields.
Qué significan los cambios
- Rising long-term expectations are a red flag for central banks.
- Short-term expectations follow petrol and food prices closely.
Mayor de lo esperado: A higher figure than expected makes the Federal Reserve more likely to keep rates high or raise them: it tends to support the US dollar and push bond yields up, and is often a weight on stocks.
Menor de lo esperado: A lower figure than expected gives the Federal Reserve room to cut or hold rates lower: the US dollar tends to soften and bond yields to fall.
Una breve historia
Expectations became central to economics with the work of Milton Friedman and Edmund Phelps in the late 1960s; the University of Michigan has asked US households about the prices they expect since its first surveys after the Second World War, and for a numeric inflation rate since the late 1970s.
Preguntas
What is the United States Consumer Inflation Expectations?
The United States Consumer Inflation Expectations measures the inflation that households, businesses or professional forecasters in the United States expect over the coming months or years.
What was the latest United States Consumer Inflation Expectations?
3.9% for SEP, published on 7 October 2026.
When is the next United States Consumer Inflation Expectations?
On Monday 9 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Solo contenido educativo, no asesoramiento de inversión. Las cifras son los resultados publicados según los registra nuestro calendario; las reacciones del mercado descritas son típicas, no garantizadas.