Inflation expectations · Euro Area
Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations
The Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations measures the inflation that households, businesses or professional forecasters in the Euro Area expect over the coming months or years.
- Importancia
- Medium
- Publicado
- Monthly
- Próxima publicación
- Divisa
- EUR · euro
- Banco central
- The European Central Bank
Últimas cifras
El último dato, de SEP, se publicó el 2026-10-23 y fue 3.1%. Es más que 3% la vez anterior.
En las últimas 12 publicaciones osciló entre 2.5% y 4.0%, con una media de 3.1%. Ha subido tres publicaciones seguidas.
| Publicado | Para | Real | Consenso | Anterior |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct 2026 | SEP | 3.1% | – | 3% |
| 18 Sep 2026 | AUG | 3% | – | 2.9% |
| 21 Aug 2026 | JUL | 2.9% | – | 3% |
| 26 Jun 2026 | MAY | 3.5% | – | 4% |
| 1 Jun 2026 | APR | 4% | – | 4% |
| 28 Apr 2026 | MAR | 4% | – | 2.5% |
| 27 Mar 2026 | FEB | 2.5% | – | 2.6% |
| 27 Feb 2026 | JAN | 2.6% | – | 2.8% |
| 30 Jan 2026 | DEC | 2.8% | – | 2.8% |
| 8 Jan 2026 | NOV | 2.8% | – | 2.8% |
| 28 Nov 2025 | OCT | 2.8% | – | 2.7% |
| 28 Oct 2025 | SEP | 2.7% | – | 2.8% |
Por qué importa
Expectations feed into wage demands and price setting, so inflation can become self-fulfilling. Central banks watch them closely: well-anchored expectations near the target let the European Central Bank look through temporary price jumps.
Cómo se calcula
Survey respondents give their own estimate of future price growth; the release reports the median or average. Market-based versions use the gap between ordinary and inflation-linked bond yields.
Qué significan los cambios
- Rising long-term expectations are a red flag for central banks.
- Short-term expectations follow petrol and food prices closely.
Mayor de lo esperado: A higher figure than expected makes the European Central Bank more likely to keep rates high or raise them: it tends to support the euro and push bond yields up, and is often a weight on stocks.
Menor de lo esperado: A lower figure than expected gives the European Central Bank room to cut or hold rates lower: the euro tends to soften and bond yields to fall.
Una breve historia
Expectations became central to economics with the work of Milton Friedman and Edmund Phelps in the late 1960s; the University of Michigan has asked US households about the prices they expect since its first surveys after the Second World War, and for a numeric inflation rate since the late 1970s.
Preguntas
What is the Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations?
The Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations measures the inflation that households, businesses or professional forecasters in the Euro Area expect over the coming months or years.
What was the latest Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations?
3.1% for SEP, published on 23 October 2026.
When is the next Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations?
On Thursday 3 December 2026.
Solo contenido educativo, no asesoramiento de inversión. Las cifras son los resultados publicados según los registra nuestro calendario; las reacciones del mercado descritas son típicas, no garantizadas.