Interest rate decision · United Arab Emirates
United Arab Emirates Interest Rate Decision
The United Arab Emirates Interest Rate Decision is the Central Bank of the UAE's announcement of its main policy rate, the base rate. It is the price of money in the United Arab Emirates: banks' borrowing costs, mortgage and loan rates and the return on cash all move with it.
- Важность
- Medium
- Опубликовано
- About every six weeks
- Валюта
- AED · UAE dirham
- Центральный банк
- The Central Bank of the UAE
Последние данные
Последняя публикация вышла 2026-09-16; значение: 3.9%. Это выше, чем 3.65% в прошлый раз.
За последние 4 публикаций значение колебалось от 3.6% до 4.2%, в среднем 3.9%.
| Опубликовано | Для | Факт | Консенсус | Предыдущее |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sep 2026 | – | 3.9% | – | 3.65% |
| 10 Dec 2025 | – | 3.65% | – | 3.90% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | – | 3.90% | – | 4.15% |
| 17 Sep 2025 | – | 4.15% | – | 4.4% |
Почему это важно
No release moves markets more directly. The rate decides what holding the UAE dirham pays, so the currency, government bond yields, bank shares and the whole stock market react within seconds. Markets usually price the decision in advance, so the surprise, and the tone of the statement and press conference, matter as much as the number: a hold with a hawkish message can lift the currency more than an expected hike.
Как считается
There is nothing to calculate: the rate is set by a vote of the central bank's policy committee at scheduled meetings. The committee weighs inflation against its target, the labour market, growth and financial conditions. Most decisions move in steps of 0.25 percentage point; 0.50 or more signals urgency.
Taylor rule (a rough guide many economists use):
rate ≈ neutral rate + inflation + 0.5 × (inflation − target) + 0.5 × output gapЧто означают изменения
- Compare the decision with the consensus: a surprise move is rare and causes the largest reactions.
- Read the statement for changes in wording; "further tightening may be needed" versus "policy is appropriate" is what traders act on.
- Look at the vote split: dissents in one direction often foreshadow the next move.
- A hike or hawkish hold usually lifts the UAE dirham and bond yields; a cut or dovish tone does the opposite. Stocks usually prefer lower rates unless the cut signals a weakening economy.
Выше ожиданий: A higher rate than expected (or a hawkish surprise) usually lifts the UAE dirham and bond yields and weighs on stocks.
Ниже ожиданий: A lower rate than expected usually weakens the UAE dirham, lowers bond yields and supports stocks.
Краткая история
Central banks have set lending rates since the Bank of England raised its Bank Rate in the 18th and 19th centuries to defend its gold reserves. Since New Zealand adopted formal inflation targeting in 1990, most central banks set rates to keep inflation near a target, usually 2%.
The dirham is pegged to the US dollar, so the base rate follows the Fed.
Вопросы
What is the United Arab Emirates Interest Rate Decision?
The United Arab Emirates Interest Rate Decision is the Central Bank of the UAE's announcement of its main policy rate, the base rate. It is the price of money in the United Arab Emirates: banks' borrowing costs, mortgage and loan rates and the return on cash all move with it.
What was the latest United Arab Emirates Interest Rate Decision?
3.9%, published on 16 September 2026.
When is the United Arab Emirates Interest Rate Decision announced?
On the dates of the Central Bank of the UAE's scheduled policy meetings, published a year in advance; the calendar above shows the next one.
Why do markets move before the decision?
Interest-rate futures and swaps price the expected decision days ahead; on the day, only the difference from those expectations moves prices.
Только образовательный материал, не инвестиционная рекомендация. Цифры — опубликованные результаты в том виде, в каком их записал наш календарь; описанные реакции рынка типичны, но не гарантированы.