United States Fed Chair Powell Testimony

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Pourquoi c’est important

Policymakers use speeches to prepare markets for decisions. A governor or chair can move the US dollar and bond yields with a single sentence about the outlook for the federal funds target range; members who vote on rates matter more than those who do not, and a change in a usually predictable speaker's tone matters most.

Mode de calcul

There is no figure; what matters is whether the remarks change expectations for rates.

Ce que signifient les variations

• Listen for the balance between inflation worries (hawkish) and growth or job worries (dovish).
• Prepared remarks are released at the start; the questions afterwards often carry the surprises.
• Testimony before parliament or congress is usually the most market-moving.

Un bref historique

For most of the 20th century central bankers said as little as possible; since the 1990s, communication and forward guidance have become policy tools in their own right.

Questions