Interest rate decision · China
China Loan Prime Rate 5Y
The China Loan Prime Rate 5Y is the People's Bank of China's announcement of its main policy rate, the loan prime rates and the 7-day reverse repo rate. It is the price of money in China: banks' borrowing costs, mortgage and loan rates and the return on cash all move with it.
- Importance
- High
- Publié
- Monthly
- Prochaine publication
- Devise
- CNH · Chinese yuan (renminbi)
- Banque centrale
- The People's Bank of China
Derniers chiffres
La dernière publication, pour OCT, est parue le 2026-10-20 et s’est établie à 3.5%. C’est conforme au consensus de 3.5%. C’est inchangé par rapport à 3.5% la fois précédente.
Un résultat conforme au consensus provoque généralement peu de réaction : il était déjà intégré dans les prix.
Sur les 12 dernières publications, la valeur est allée de 3.5% à 3.5%, avec une moyenne de 3.5%.
| Publié | Pour | Réel | Consensus | Précédent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Oct 2026 | OCT | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| 20 Sep 2026 | SEP | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| 20 Aug 2026 | AUG | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| 20 Jul 2026 | JUL | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| 22 Jun 2026 | JUN | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| 20 May 2026 | MAY | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| 20 Apr 2026 | APR | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| 20 Mar 2026 | MAR | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| 24 Feb 2026 | FEB | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| 20 Jan 2026 | JAN | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| 22 Dec 2025 | DEC | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| 20 Nov 2025 | NOV | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
Pourquoi c’est important
No release moves markets more directly. The rate decides what holding the Chinese yuan (renminbi) pays, so the currency, government bond yields, bank shares and the whole stock market react within seconds. Markets usually price the decision in advance, so the surprise, and the tone of the statement and press conference, matter as much as the number: a hold with a hawkish message can lift the currency more than an expected hike.
Mode de calcul
There is nothing to calculate: the rate is set by a vote of the central bank's policy committee at scheduled meetings. The committee weighs inflation against its target, the labour market, growth and financial conditions. Most decisions move in steps of 0.25 percentage point; 0.50 or more signals urgency.
Taylor rule (a rough guide many economists use):
rate ≈ neutral rate + inflation + 0.5 × (inflation − target) + 0.5 × output gapCe que signifient les variations
- Compare the decision with the consensus: a surprise move is rare and causes the largest reactions.
- Read the statement for changes in wording; "further tightening may be needed" versus "policy is appropriate" is what traders act on.
- Look at the vote split: dissents in one direction often foreshadow the next move.
- A hike or hawkish hold usually lifts the Chinese yuan (renminbi) and bond yields; a cut or dovish tone does the opposite. Stocks usually prefer lower rates unless the cut signals a weakening economy.
Supérieur aux attentes : A higher rate than expected (or a hawkish surprise) usually lifts the Chinese yuan (renminbi) and bond yields and weighs on stocks.
Inférieur aux attentes : A lower rate than expected usually weakens the Chinese yuan (renminbi), lowers bond yields and supports stocks.
Un bref historique
Central banks have set lending rates since the Bank of England raised its Bank Rate in the 18th and 19th centuries to defend its gold reserves. Since New Zealand adopted formal inflation targeting in 1990, most central banks set rates to keep inflation near a target, usually 2%.
Questions
What is the China Loan Prime Rate 5Y?
The China Loan Prime Rate 5Y is the People's Bank of China's announcement of its main policy rate, the loan prime rates and the 7-day reverse repo rate. It is the price of money in China: banks' borrowing costs, mortgage and loan rates and the return on cash all move with it.
What was the latest China Loan Prime Rate 5Y?
3.5% for OCT, published on 20 October 2026 (consensus 3.5%, previous 3.5%).
When is the next China Loan Prime Rate 5Y?
On Friday 20 November 2026 at 01:15 UTC.
When is the China Loan Prime Rate 5Y announced?
On the dates of the People's Bank of China's scheduled policy meetings, published a year in advance; the calendar above shows the next one.
Why do markets move before the decision?
Interest-rate futures and swaps price the expected decision days ahead; on the day, only the difference from those expectations moves prices.
Contenu éducatif uniquement, pas un conseil en investissement. Les chiffres sont les résultats publiés tels qu’enregistrés par notre calendrier ; les réactions de marché décrites sont typiques, non garanties.