Channels
Andrews' pitchfork
Three parallel lines from three swing points: a median line that prices often return to, and two outer lines.
Die Idee in einfachen Worten
Dr Alan Andrews observed that after three swing points, prices tend to come back to a line from the first point through the middle of the other two, about 80% of the time by his account. The outer prongs mark the edges of the likely path.
So wird gerechnet
Click the start of the move (handle), then the next high and the next low (or low and high). The median line runs from the handle through the midpoint of points 2 and 3; parallels pass through points 2 and 3.
Median line: from point 1 through the midpoint of points 2 and 3
Upper and lower prongs: parallel to the median through points 2 and 3Anwendung
- Expect prices to gravitate to the median line.
- The outer prongs act as support and resistance.
- Failing to reach the median line hints at a reversal.
Schlüsse ziehen
- A break outside the pitchfork suggests the trend structure has changed.
Beispiel
After a low, a high and a higher low on GBPUSD, the pitchfork's median rises; the price reaches it a week later and pauses.
Kurse in Beispielen dienen der Veranschaulichung.
Worauf man achten sollte
- Choosing the three points is a judgement call; different choices give different forks.
Ein wenig Geschichte
Dr Alan Andrews taught the technique from the 1960s, building on ideas of Roger Babson.
Nur Bildungsinhalte. Kein Indikator und kein Muster sagt die Zukunft voraus, und nichts hier ist eine Anlageberatung.