United States Core PCE Prices QoQ 2nd Est

Neueste Zahlen

Die letzte Veröffentlichung, für Q2, erschien am 2026-08-26 und lag bei 3.6%. Das liegt über dem Konsens von 3.4%. Das ist weniger als 4.4% beim letzten Mal.

A higher figure than expected makes the Federal Reserve more likely to keep rates high or raise them: it tends to support the US dollar and push bond yields up, and is often a weight on stocks.

In den letzten 6 Veröffentlichungen lag der Wert zwischen 2.5% und 4.4%, im Schnitt 3.2%.

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Warum es wichtig ist

In the United States the Federal Reserve's 2% target is defined on the PCE price index, and the core measure (without food and energy) is the one policymakers quote most. Because CPI comes out first, markets usually know roughly what PCE will show; surprises come from the parts measured differently, such as health care.

So wird gerechnet

PCE prices are built from the same price data as CPI and producer prices, but weighted by what households actually spend (including what is paid on their behalf, like employer health insurance), and the weights change every period. The GDP deflator divides nominal GDP by real GDP.

Deflator = nominal GDP ÷ real GDP × 100
PCE inflation = PCE index ÷ PCE index a year ago − 1

Was Veränderungen bedeuten

• Core PCE above 2% and rising keeps the Fed cautious about cutting rates.
• The monthly change annualised (× 12) shows the latest pace; three-month averages smooth the noise.

Eine kurze Geschichte

The Fed switched its preferred inflation measure from CPI to PCE in 2000 and wrote the 2% PCE target into its strategy in 2012.

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