Silver (XAGUSD) – A Potential Bullish Reversal at a Critical Technical Zone

Silver has experienced a significant daily decline, with the latest session closing at 49.093, almost exactly at the projected Point 5 of a bullish Wolfe Wave pattern.

Despite strong bearish momentum (ADX 51.64 and −DI significantly above +DI), the current price presents an interesting technical confluence:

• Price is testing the 100-day range low at 48.841.
• The extended Wolfe Wave boundary aligns with the current price.
• The first pattern target is 71.147, close to the 100-day range high of 71.534.
• Historical pattern testing across 903 trades shows a 28% target-before-stop rate and an average expected return of +0.24R.

However, the latest bearish marubozu raises an important warning: the bullish reversal is not yet confirmed.

My view: Silver is approaching a potentially significant turning point. A confirmed recovery could open the way toward 71.147, while a sustained breakdown below 48.841 would weaken the bullish scenario.

The key now is confirmation, not anticipation.

Technical analysis is about probabilities, not certainties.

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