Interest rate decision · Romania
Romania Interest Rate Decision
The Romania Interest Rate Decision is the National Bank of Romania's announcement of its main policy rate, the monetary policy rate. It is the price of money in Romania: banks' borrowing costs, mortgage and loan rates and the return on cash all move with it.
- الأهمية
- Medium
- صدر
- About every six weeks
- الإصدار التالي
- العملة
- RON · Romanian leu
- البنك المركزي
- The National Bank of Romania
- يحرّك
- MICRON
أحدث الأرقام
صدر آخر إصدار في 2026-10-08 وجاء عند 6.5%. هذا مطابق للإجماع البالغ 6.5%. دون تغيير عن 6.5% في المرة السابقة.
النتيجة المطابقة للتوقعات تُحدث عادةً ردة فعل ضعيفة: فقد كانت مُسعَّرة مسبقًا.
خلال آخر 12 إصدارات تراوح بين 6.5% و6.5%، بمتوسط 6.5%.
| صدر | المدة | الفعلي | التوقعات | السابق |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Oct 2026 | – | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| 10 Aug 2026 | – | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| 8 Jul 2026 | – | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| 15 May 2026 | – | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| 7 Apr 2026 | – | 6.5% | – | 6.5% |
| 17 Feb 2026 | – | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| 19 Jan 2026 | – | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| 12 Nov 2025 | – | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| 8 Oct 2025 | – | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| 8 Aug 2025 | – | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| 8 Jul 2025 | – | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| 16 May 2025 | – | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
لماذا يهم
No release moves markets more directly. The rate decides what holding the Romanian leu pays, so the currency, government bond yields, bank shares and the whole stock market react within seconds. Markets usually price the decision in advance, so the surprise, and the tone of the statement and press conference, matter as much as the number: a hold with a hawkish message can lift the currency more than an expected hike.
طريقة الحساب
There is nothing to calculate: the rate is set by a vote of the central bank's policy committee at scheduled meetings. The committee weighs inflation against its target, the labour market, growth and financial conditions. Most decisions move in steps of 0.25 percentage point; 0.50 or more signals urgency.
Taylor rule (a rough guide many economists use):
rate ≈ neutral rate + inflation + 0.5 × (inflation − target) + 0.5 × output gapما تعنيه التغيرات
- Compare the decision with the consensus: a surprise move is rare and causes the largest reactions.
- Read the statement for changes in wording; "further tightening may be needed" versus "policy is appropriate" is what traders act on.
- Look at the vote split: dissents in one direction often foreshadow the next move.
- A hike or hawkish hold usually lifts the Romanian leu and bond yields; a cut or dovish tone does the opposite. Stocks usually prefer lower rates unless the cut signals a weakening economy.
أعلى من المتوقع: A higher rate than expected (or a hawkish surprise) usually lifts the Romanian leu and bond yields and weighs on stocks.
أقل من المتوقع: A lower rate than expected usually weakens the Romanian leu, lowers bond yields and supports stocks.
لمحة تاريخية قصيرة
Central banks have set lending rates since the Bank of England raised its Bank Rate in the 18th and 19th centuries to defend its gold reserves. Since New Zealand adopted formal inflation targeting in 1990, most central banks set rates to keep inflation near a target, usually 2%.
الأسئلة
What is the Romania Interest Rate Decision?
The Romania Interest Rate Decision is the National Bank of Romania's announcement of its main policy rate, the monetary policy rate. It is the price of money in Romania: banks' borrowing costs, mortgage and loan rates and the return on cash all move with it.
What was the latest Romania Interest Rate Decision?
6.5%, published on 8 October 2026 (consensus 6.5%, previous 6.5%).
When is the next Romania Interest Rate Decision?
On Thursday 12 November 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
When is the Romania Interest Rate Decision announced?
On the dates of the National Bank of Romania's scheduled policy meetings, published a year in advance; the calendar above shows the next one.
Why do markets move before the decision?
Interest-rate futures and swaps price the expected decision days ahead; on the day, only the difference from those expectations moves prices.
محتوى تعليمي فقط، وليس نصيحة استثمارية. الأرقام هي النتائج المنشورة كما سجّلتها مفكرتنا؛ وردود فعل السوق الموصوفة نموذجية وليست مضمونة.