India HSBC Composite PMI Flash

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لماذا يهم

PMIs are among the first data published for each month, weeks before official output figures, and they have a good record of tracking GDP. A reading above 50 means growth, below 50 contraction. Flash (preliminary) PMIs for the major economies can move currencies and stock indices strongly.

طريقة الحساب

Companies answer whether each item (output, new orders, employment, delivery times, stocks of purchases) is higher, the same or lower than a month earlier. Each answer set becomes a diffusion index; the manufacturing headline is a weighted average of five of them, the services headline is the activity question.

Diffusion index = % higher + ½ × % same
Manufacturing PMI = 0.30 new orders + 0.25 output + 0.20 employment + 0.15 delivery times (inverted) + 0.10 stocks

ما تعنيه التغيرات

• Above 50 and rising: an accelerating economy, supportive for the Indian rupee and local stocks.
• The composite PMI combines manufacturing and services and is the best single guide to GDP.
• Look at new orders (future activity) and prices charged (inflation pressure).

لمحة تاريخية قصيرة

The PMI method comes from the US purchasing managers' survey of the 1940s; the PMIs now produced for more than 40 countries started in the UK in 1992 and spread across Europe and Asia in the following decades.

الأسئلة